The Effects of BREXIT on UK Trade: An Empirical Study of Exports

Abstract

BREXIT is a significant event in the history of the United Kingdom, whether economically or geopolitically since it has had major repercussions that have disrupted not only economic growth but also the country's trade with its partners. The objective of this paper is to analyze these repercussions on the United Kingdom's exports. To do this, we took a sample of data from 19 countries that have trade links with the United Kingdom. The study period spans from 2013 to 2023. The method we chose to estimate our model is that of generalized moments (MMG), because it allows us to identify the reverse causal relationships between the variables. The results showed that among the variables chosen for our model, the GBP exchange rate variable, the BREXIT variable and the partner's GDP variable had a significant effect on the United Kingdom's exports.

Keywords: BREXIT, Generalized Method of Moments, UK Exports, Free Trade.

JEL Classification: C23; F14; F1; H5; N7

Paper type: Empirical research