Determinants of the prices of petroleum products in the DR Congo and mechanism for forecast price adjustment

Abstract

This paper examines the price of petroleum products in the DRC and the forecast price adjustment process, annually and monthly respectively for price trackers and forecasters. It uses an autoregressive model with significant duration to capture the short and long term determinants of petroleum product prices in the DRC. He went on to use Holt and Box-Jenkins exponential smoothing forecasting techniques to study price volatility patterns and their optimality.

The results it produces identify international market changes (copper price, Brent price), economic and fiscal changes (public spending, exchange rate, inflation rate, tax pressure) as price determinants. petroleum products in the DRC). Also, the study shows that the effect of these changes on the price of petroleum is very important but it is only reflected in the price of petroleum products due to the collapse of the price of the rescue by the government. The preference for price adjustment is only partially due to price freezes implemented by the government.

Key words: ARDL, Forecast, Petroleum products, Price truth, Adjustment

Classification JEL : C22, C53, Q32, E31, E39.

Paper type : Empirical recherch